Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins Of Modern Wall Street 9780471731740 azw3 极速 下载 snb txt pdf pdb 夸克云

　　Capital Ideas traces the origins of modern Wall Street, from

the pioneering work of early scholars and the development of new

theories in risk, valuation, and investment returns, to the actual

implementation of these theories in the real world of investment

management. Bernstein brings to life a variety of brilliant

academics who have contributed to modern investment theory over the

years: Louis Bachelier, Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, Fischer

Black, Myron Scholes, Robert Merton, Franco Modigliani, and Merton

Miller. Filled with in–depth insights and timeless advice, Capital

Ideas reveals how the unique contributions of these talented

individuals profoundly changed the practice of investment

management as we know it today.

Acknowledgments. Introduction: The Revolution in the Wealth of

Nations. PART I: SETTING THE SCENE.

Chapter 1. Are Stock Prices Predictable? PART II: THE WHOLE AND THE

PARTS.

Chapter 2. Fourteen Pages to Fame.

Chapter 3. The Interior Decorator Fallacy.

Chapter 4. The Most Important Single Influence. PART III: THE DEMON

OFCHANCE.

Chapter 5. Illusions, Molecules, and Trends.

Chapter 6. Anticipating Prices Properly.

Chapter 7. The Search for High P.Q. PAR IV: WHAT ARE STOCKS

WORTH?

Chapter 8. The Best at the Price.

Chapter 9. The Bombshell Assertions.

Chapter 10. Risky Business.

Chapter 11. The Universal Financial Device. PART V: FROM GOWN TO

TOWN.

Chapter 12. TheConstellation.

Chapter 13. The Accountant for Risk.

Chapter 14. The Ultimate Invention. PART VI: THE FUTURE.

Chapter 15. The View form the Top of the Tower. Notes. Bibliography

and Other Sources. Name Index. Subject Index.

　　Peter L. Bernstein, one of the foremost financial writers of

his generation, is the author of the bestselling, Against the Gods:

The Remarkable Story of Risk and The Power of Gold: The History of

an Obsession, both from Wiley, as well as five other books. He is

President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., an investment consulting

firm he founded in 1973 after many years of managing billions of

dollars in individual and institutional portfolios. He is the

founding Editor of the Journal of Investment Management. He has

lectured widely throughout the United States and abroad, and has

received the highest honors from his peers in the investment

profession.

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遗憾的是，在互联网电商领域，长尾现象有消失的趋势。来自淘宝的统计数据发现，畅销品构成的短头越来越粗，而其他产品构成的长尾越来越短，甚至消失了。对于整个平台系统而言，长尾效应的消失是致命的。它将导致整个平台不再外延扩张，而是向内收缩，导致平台被锁住，整个生态系统遭到破坏。而同时，还有很多案例显示马太效应对于经济、文化等系统的破坏力量。破坏的根源在于马太效应遏制多样性、创新的产生。

Keynes uses the expression “Liquidity Preference” to describe the idea that investors will not part with their cash unless they perceive the reward for doing so as adequate. Interest, in other words, is not only a reward for saving; it is a reward for taking the risk of owning assets that fluctuate in value and are costly to buy and sell.

Money, the basic liquid asset, cannot fluctuate in price, because it itself defines price. Moreover the cost of using money to pay for things is minimal, most often zero. If other assets shared these unique attributes, stocks and bonds and even real estate could circulate as money. Other assets do not share these attributes, however. Their future prices are uncertain, and buying and selling them is costly. All other things being equal, therefore, people p...

Tobin points out that Keynes built two bizarre features into his theory of Liquidity Preference. For one thing, Keynes assumed that investors’ expectations of interest rates in the future are extremely slow to change: “. . . the rate of interest is a highly conventional, rather than a highly psychological phenomenon. . . . Any level of interest which is accepted with sufficient conviction as likely to be durable will be durable. . . . [I]t may fluctuate for decades about a level which is chronically too high for full employment.”

Keynes’s second unrealistic assumption was that each investor would choose between cash and risky assets in an either-or manner, holding only one asset at a time. Investors who expected interest rates to rise would want to hold all their capital in cash; investors...

The convenient fact that has just been proved is that the proportionate composition of the non-cash [i.e., risky] assets is independent of their aggregate share of the investment balance.

This concept has come to be known as the Separation Theorem, because it argues that the Markowitzian process of selecting securities for the most efficient risky portfolio is completely separate from the decision of how to divide up the total portfolio between risky and risk-free assets. Two levels of decisions are required.

The investor’s first and most important decision is how much overall exposure to risk is appropriate—how much to hold in risky securities like stocks and how much to hold in more stable assets like bonds and cash.

Having determined the appropriate exposure to risk, the investor’s ne...

巴恰塔亚等人认为，社会的创造性源于个人认识和社会网络的结构。互联度太高导致社会成员的相似性太高，会降低一个社会的创造性；互联度太低则丧失了合作创新机制。

对于金融业来说，从来都是信息比知识更重要。

编辑推荐

　　Review

　　Richard Brealey London Business School This is a great

book...captures marvelously the excitement of the search for new

ideas.

　　Review

　　...a book that is insightful and thought–provoking." (The

Economist, June 15, 2007)

　　"…a challenging sequel to (and spirited defence of) his 1992

classic" (Bloomberg, Friday 8th June)

　　“Mr Bernstein has yet again produced a book that is insightful

and thought–provoking.” (The Economist, 15th June 2007)

　　"...a great primer in the ideas that currently govern the way the

world′s money is invested." (Financial Times, Mon 2nd July

2007)

　　"satisfying read" (Capital Ideas Evolving, Monday 6th

August)

　　"a clear and elegant introduction to the debate, including

vignettes of all the main intellectual figures" (Financial Times,

Saturday 15th December2007)

　　“… an excellent introduction to…modern portfolio theory and will

appeal to academics, practitioners, and to others who study

financial markets.” (Pension, Economics and Finance Journal (PEF),

Vol. 7/2 08)

　　The Financial Times, July 2, 2007

　　...an enthusiastic study of the academics whose theories

have

　　revolutionised global markets...also a great primer in the ideas

that

　　currently govern the way the world's money is invested."

　　Financial Times Mon 2nd July

　　...a great primer in the ideas that currently govern the way

the

　　worlds money is invested."

　　Financial Times, Saturday 15th December 2007

　　"a clear and elegant introduction to the debate, including

vignettes of all the main intellectual figures"

书籍介绍

在线阅读本书

Capital Ideas traces the origins of modern Wall Street, from the pioneering work of early scholars and the development of new theories in risk, valuation, and investment returns, to the actual implementation of these theories in the real world of investment management. Bernstein brings to life a variety of brilliant academics who have contributed to modern investment theory over the years: Louis Bachelier, Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, Robert Merton, Franco Modigliani, and Merton Miller. Filled with in–depth insights and timeless advice, Capital Ideas reveals how the unique contributions of these talented individuals profoundly changed the practice of investment management as we know it today.